Selected Publications

Submitted / in review

  1. P. J. Applegate, N. M. Urban, K. Keller, and R. B. Alley: Modeling the statistical distributions of cosmogenic exposure dates from moraines, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 2, 1407-1446, 2009

  2. McInerney, D., R. Lempert, and K. Keller What are robust strategies in the face of uncertain climate threshold responses?, Submitted to Climatic Change, (2010).

  3. Hall, J., R. J. Lempert, K. Keller, A. Hackbarth, C. Mijere, and D. J. McInerney: Robust climate policies under uncertainty: A comparison of Robust Decision-Making and Info-Gap methods, Submitted to Risk Analysis (2010).

  4. Sriver, Ryan L., M. Goes, M. E. Mann, and K. Keller: Climate response to tropical cyclone-induced ocean mixing in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, Submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research, Oceans (2010).

  5. Goes, M., N. M. Urban, R. Tonkonojenkov, M. Haran, and K. Keller: The skill of different ocean tracers in reducing uncertainties about projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans, in revision (2010).

  6. Bhat, K.S., Haran, M., Tonkonojenkov, R., and Keller, K.: Inferring likelihoods and climate system characteristics from climate models and multiple tracers, Annals of Applied Statistics, in review (2010).

  7. Goes, M, K. Keller, and N. Tuana, The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering, Climatic Change, in revision (2010).

  8. Keller, K., Conveyor Belt Circulation, Invited contribution to “Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather” (2nd Edition), Oxford University Press, in review (2010).

  9. Urban, N. M. and K. Keller, Probabilistic hindcasts and projections of the coupled climate, carbon cycle, and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation systems: A Bayesian fusion of century-scale observations with a simple model, Tellus A, in revision (2010).

  10. Budescu, D. V., R. Lempert, S. Broomell, and K. Keller: Aided and unaided decision making with imprecise probabilities.  Journal of Experimental Psychology, in review (2010).

  11. Miltich, L.I., D. M. Ricciuto, and K. Keller: A probabilistic assessment of historic land use CO2 emissions based on atmospheric, oceanic, and ice-core observations, Environmental Research Letters, in revision (2009).

  12. Keller, K, L. I. Miltich, A, Robinson, and R. S. J. Tol: How overconfident are current projections of carbon dioxide emissions? Energy Journal, in revision, (2009).

Published

  1. Schienke, E.W., N. Tuana, D. A. Brown, K. J. Davis, K. Keller, J. S. Shortle, M. Stickler, and S. D. Baum: The Role of the NSF Broader Impacts Criterion in Enhancing Research Ethics Pedagogy, Social Epistemology, 23, 317–336 (2009)

  2. Schmittner, A., N.M. Urban, K. Keller, and D. Matthews: Using tracer observations to reduce the uncertainty of ocean diapycnal mixing and climate carbon-cycle projections. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, GB4009, doi:10.1029/2008GB003421

  3. Urban, M. N. and K. Keller: Complementary observational constraints on climate sensitivity, Geophysical Research Letters, L04708, doi:10.1029/2008GL036457 (2009).

  4. Ricciuto, D., Tonkonojenkov, R., Urban, N.M., Wilkinson, R., Matthews, D., Davis, K. and Keller, K.: Assimilation of global carbon cycle observations into an Earth system model to estimate uncertain terrestrial carbon cycle parameters. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, in revision, (2009).

  5. Keller, K., R.S.J. Tol, F.L. Toth, and G.W. Yohe: Abrupt climate change near the poles. Climatic Change, 91, 1-4 (2008)

  6. Ricciuto, D. M., K. J. Davis, and K. Keller: A Bayesian synthesis inversion of carbon cycle observations: How can observations reduce uncertainties about future sinks? Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22, doi:10.1029/2006GB002908 (2008).

  7. McInerney, D.,  and K. Keller: Economically optimal risk reduction strategies in the face of uncertain climate thresholds, Climatic Change, 91, 29-41 (2008).

  8. Keller, K., D. McInerney, and D. F. Bradford: Carbon dioxide sequestration: How much and when?,  Climatic Change, 88, 267-291 (2008).

  9. Keller, K., and D. McInerney: The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold, Climate Dynamics, 30,  321-332, DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0290-5 (2008).

  10. Brennan, B., R. Matear, and K. Keller: Measuring oxygen concentrations to improve the detection capabilities of an ocean observation array, Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 113, C02019, doi:10.1029/2007JC004113, (2008).

  11. Baehr, J., D. McInerney, K. Keller, and J. Marotzke: Optimization of an observing system design for the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 25, 625-634 (2008).

  12. Schneider, S. H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A. Suarez F. Yamin, J. Corfee-Morlot, A. Finkel, H.-M. Füssel, K. Keller, Dena MacMynowski, M. D. Mastrandrea, A. Todorov, R. Sukumar, J.-P. van Ypersele, J. Zillman: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 779-810 (2007).

  13. Keller, K., A. Robinson, D. F. Bradford, and M. Oppenheimer: The regrets of procrastination in climate policy, Environmental Research Letters, 2 024004 (4pp) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024004 (2007).

  14. Keller, K., S.-R. Kim, J. Baehr, D. F. Bradford, and M. Oppenheimer: What is the economic value of information about climate thresholds?, Chapter in: "Integrated Assessment of Human Induced Climate Change", Chief Editor: Michael Schlesinger, (2007).

  15. Keller, K.,  G. Yohe, and M. Schlesinger: Managing the risks of climate thresholds: Uncertainties and information needs. An editorial essay, Climatic Change, 91, 5-10 (2008).

  16. Baehr, J., K. Keller, and J. Marotzke: Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 oN in the Atlantic, Climatic Change,  91, 11-27 (2008).

  17. Keller, K., C. Deutsch, M. G. Hall and D. F. Bradford: Early detection of changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: Implications for the design of ocean observation systems, Journal of Climate, 20, 145-157 (2007).

  18. O’Neill, B. C., P. Crutzen, A. Grübler, M. Ha Duong, K. Keller, C. Kolstad, J. Koomey, A. Lange, M. Obersteiner, M. Oppenheimer, W. Pepper, W. Sanderson, M. Schlesinger, N. Treich, A. Ulph, M. Webster, and C. Wilson, Learning and Climate Change, Climate Policy, 6, 585-589, (2006).

  19. Min D.-H. and K. Keller: Errors in estimated temporal tracer trends due to changes in the historical observation network: A case study of oxygen trends in the Southern Ocean, Ocean and Polar Research, 27(2), 189-195 (2005).

  20. Keller, K., M. Hall,  S.-R. Kim, D. F. Bradford, and M. Oppenheimer: Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, Climatic Change, 73, 227-238 (2005).

  21. Keller, K., B. M. Bolker, and D. F. Bradford: Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management , 48, 723-741 (2004).

  22. Moles, C. G.,  J. R. Banga, and K. Keller: Solving nonconvex climate control problems: Pitfalls and algorithm performances, Applied Soft Computing, 5 (1), 35-44 (2004).

  23. Kraepiel, A. M. L., K Keller, H. B. Chin, E. G. Malcolm, and F. M. M. Morel, Sources and Variations of Mercury in Tuna, Environmental Science and Technology,  37, 5551-5558, (2003).

  24. Gruber, N., K. Keller, and R. M. Key: What story is told by oceanic tracer concentrations?, Science, 290, 455, 2000.

  25. Keller, K., R. D. Slater, M. Bender and R. M. Key: Possible biological or physical explanations for decadal scale trends in North Pacific nutrient concentrations and oxygen utilization, Deep-Sea-Research, II, 49, 345-362 (2002).

  26. Bradford D. F., and K. Keller: Global Warming Potentials: A Cost-Effectiveness Approach, Paper presented at the NBER Summer Institute Environmental Economics Workshop, Cambridge, MA, August 7-8, 2000.

  27. Keller, K., K. Tan, F. M. M. Morel, and D. F. Bradford: Preserving the ocean circulation: Implications for climate policy, Climatic Change, 47 (1-2) 17-43 (2000). (Also NBER working paper # 7476.)

  28. Keller, K. and F. M. M. Morel:  A model of carbon isotopic fractionation and active carbon uptake in phytoplankton, Marine Ecology Progress Series, 182, 295-298 (1999).

  29. Kraepiel, A. M. L., K. Keller and F. M. M. Morel:  A model for metal adsorption on Montmorillonite, Journal of Colloid and Interface Science, 210, 43-54 (1999).

  30. Kraepiel, A. M. L., K. Keller and F. M. M. Morel:  On the acid-base chemistry of permanently charged minerals,  Environmental Science and Technology, 32, 2829-2838 (1998).

  31. Gessler G. and K. Keller: Vergleich verschiedener Verfahren zur Vergaerung von Bioabfaellen,  Abfallwirtschaftsjournal, (7) 377-383 (1995).

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